Philosophy and Climate Science
- New York Cambridge University Press 2018
- 270p
includes index and biblioraphy
1 Introduction .....1 Introduction .....7 2 Data .....7 Introduction ......7 The nature of scientific data ......7 Evidence of warming ......9 Satellite data: A cautionary tale .....11 Evidence of warming, continued ......16 Conclusion ......24 Suggestions for further reading ......24 3 Models .....26 Introduction .....26 Energy balance models .......26 The nature of models: Mediating models .....29 Conclusion: How good are energy balance models ......33 Suggestions for further reading ......37 4 Simulations ......38 Introduction ....38 What is computer simulation .....39 The purposes of climate modeling .....41 Features of computer simulations of the climate ....44 Suggestions for further reading .....54 5 Chaos ......55 Introduction .....55 What is chaos ......55 Two toy chaotic models .....60 Mitigating butterflies .....63 The joint weather/climate strategy ......69 The hawkmoth effect .....70 Conclusion ......72 Suggestions for further reading ....73 6 Probability ......75 Introduction ......75 Interpretations of probability for climate science ......76 Chances and credences .....78 ...And how to tell them apart .....81 Probabilities in weather and climate ......83 Conclusion .....87 Suggestions for further reading ....89 7 Confidence .......90 Introduction .....90 Sources of uncertainty .....90 How uncertainty is quantified 1: ensembles and sampling .....95 How uncertainty is quantified II: Expert elicitation ......100 Group credences .....102 Confidence .....103 Conclusion .....106 Suggestions for further reading ....107 8 Decision .......108 Statistical inference: Two paradigms .....108 Probability and inference ....112 Risk and uncertainty - three approaches .....114 Probability and decision ....120 Cost benefit analysis ....122 Conclusion .....128 Suggestions for further reading ....129 9 Values ....130 Introduction .....130 Risk .....132 Replies to the brair ....136 A model-specific response to brair: Prediction preference .....138 Models, values, and probabilities .....145 Imprecise probabilities .....147 Values and biases ....150 Conclusion .....151 Suggestions for further reading .....152 10 Skill ......154 Introduction .....154 Vertification and validation ......155 An alternative picture ......160 Turning revisited ......163 Conclusion .....173 Suggestions for further reading .....174 11 Robustness ......175 Introduction .....175 Robustness analysis - A focus on models ......177 Robustness Analysis in climate science: Lloyed and parker .....178 Robustness analysis - beyond model agreement .....183 Sufficient diversity of evidence - cumulative epistemic power .....184 Conclusion: RA diversity .....185 Suggestions for further reading .....186 12 Diversity ....188 Introduction .....188 Explanatory robustness ....191 Evidence of an ECS hypothesis: solely from model diversity ....194 Evidence of an ECS hypothesis: Beyond model diversity .....202 Conclusion ....206 Suggestions for further reading .....206 13 Social epistemology ......208 Introduction ....208 First branch: social interaction ....210 Second branch: From individuals to groups .....215 Third branch: Institutional arrangements .....221 Suggestions for further reading .....226 14 Epilogue .....227 Appendix: Structural stability and the Hawkmoth effect .....232 What is the Hawkmoth effect supposed to be ....232 Two routes to a hawkmoth effect ....235 The structural stability route .....236 The demon`s apprentice route ....241 Small arbitrary model perturbations ....244